Monitoring Population Evolution in China Using Time-Series DMSP/OLS Nightlight Imagery

Accurate and detailed monitoring of population distribution and evolution is of great significance in formulating a population planning strategy in China. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) nighttime lights time-series (NLT) image products offer a good opportunity for detecting the population distribution owing to its high correlation to human activities. However, their detection capability is greatly limited owing to a lack of in-flight calibration. At present, the synergistic use of systematically-corrected NLT products and population spatialization is rarely applied. This work proposed a methodology to improve the application precision and versatility of NLT products, explored a feasible approach to quantitatively spatialize the population to grid units of 1 km× 1 km, and revealed the spatio-temporal characteristics of population distribution from 2000 to 2010. Results indicated that, (1) after inter-calibration, geometric, incompatibility and discontinuity corrections, and adjustment based on vegetation information, the incompatibility and discontinuity of NTL products were successfully solved. Accordingly, detailed actual residential areas and luminance differences between the urban core and the peripheral regions could be obtained. (2) The population spatialization method could effectively acquire population information at per km2 with high accuracy and exhibit more details in the evolution of population distribution. (3) Obvious differences in spatio-temporal characteristics existed in four economic regions, from the aspects of population distribution and dynamics, as well as population-weighted centroids. The eastern region was the most populous with the largest increased magnitude, followed by the central, northeastern, and western regions. The population-weighted centroids of the eastern, western, and northeastern regions moved along the southwest direction, while the population-weighted centroid of the central region moved along the southeast direction. (4) The population distribution and dynamics in nine-level population density types were significantly different. In the period of 2000–2010, the population in the basic no-man and high concentration types presented a net decrease. The population in seven other regions all increased with a net increase ranging from 25 km2 (the moderate concentration type) to 245,668 km2 (the general transition type). Except those in the core concentration and extremely sparse types, the population-weighted centroids in all other population density types moved along the southwest direction.